Mouvement vers le centre

Project:3- Mode de scrutin
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Project wiki:3- Élections et modes de scrutin

It is widely believed that the Conservatives can significantly improve their chances in the next general election by 'moving to the centre of the political spectrum'. This paper uses data from the 2005 British Election Study to simulate both the direct and indirect consequences of such a move. The simulations show that the Conservatives would undoubtedly benefit from moving to the ideological centre-ground of British politics. However, they also indicate that a move to the centre, on its own, would probably add only 5 percentage points to the Conservatives' share of the vote in 2009/10 ¾ clearly insufficient to ensure a Conservative victory. One way in which the Conservatives could garner the additional votes they need is to target the large number of public sector workers who have been alienated from Labour by its emphasis on public sector micro-management.

Blair a fait la même chose pour se faire élire. C'est une évidence mathématique!



After three successive general election defeats, and three leaders since 1997, the Conservative Party finally seems to have staged a recovery during the first year of David Cameron's leadership. He has energetically sought to reposition the Conservatives ideologically, insisting on the need to depart from Thatcherism and move back towards the centre ground of British politics by promoting a more socially inclusive and compassionate Conservatism. His initial efforts seem to have been highly successful, with the Conservative Party enjoying its first sustained poll leads over Labour since 1992. However, more careful consideration suggests that the Conservative's recovery is rather fragile, and thus far dependent mainly on short-term factors. Certainly, the Party should be (and needs to be) much further ahead in the polls at this stage of the electoral cycle if it is to win the next general election. Moreover, Cameron has deliberately avoided making specific policy pledges so far, pending a comprehensive internal policy review to be completed by the summer of 2007, yet when more detailed policies are announced many of them are likely to refuel intra-party divisions between socially liberal modernizers and Thatcherite traditionalists, and this, in turn, will almost certainly alienate some of the electoral support (re)gained during Cameron's first year as Conservative leader. Consequently, a Conservative victory at the next general election remains highly unlikely.